The Houston Rockets season is over. It was an incredibly successful campaign overall, and they and their fans should be proud. However, their series against the Warriors exposed some big weaknesses in their roster construction that need to be addressed if they want to truly compete in the playoffs next year.
Let’s just rip the Band-Aid off. After the playoffs, it’s clear that Alperen Sengun cannot be Houston’s franchise player for the future.
That may seem harsh or even flat-out false at first. After all, Sengun was far-and-away the best Rocket in the postseason. He averaged 20.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.9 steals, upping his production in almost every area compared to the regular season. He was often tasked with putting the team on his back and creating something out of nothing, and did an admirable job of delivering at times. Yet, it became obvious throughout the series that he can’t be leaned into that heavily if a deep playoff run is the goal. Game 7 was a good example of why.
In the season-ending loss, Sengun posted 21 points on 9-23 shooting while adding five assists and three turnovers. His plus/minus of -12 was tied for the game low with Tari Eason. Of course, this was the 22-year-old’s first playoff run, and excelling in a Game 7 scenario at his age with his responsibility is almost unheard of. Still, his performance left a lot to be desired in terms of his process. Sengun’s playstyle was the main cause of struggles he had in the playoffs.
Sengun’s game is built on a combination of power and finesse sometimes reminiscent of Nikola Jokic. He wants to get to his spots in the post and finish inside. However, he doesn’t have the quickness, strength, or dexterity to consistently carve out easy looks. In the playoffs, he had a tough time going against guys like Draymond Green and Kevon Looney one-on-one because he wasn’t able to move them out of the way and create space. This often led to ill-advised, awkward looking hooks and push shots that he wasn’t converting at a high level.
That’s the other problem— Sengun’s touch is not good enough for a guy whose game often relies on finesse more than anything. He struggles with efficiency too much for someone of his size. His 49.1% true shooting rate in the playoffs ranked in the 29th percentile, via Shotcreator. In the larger sample size of the regular season, his true shooting rate of 54.5% was in the 32nd percentile. It’s not like Sengun takes a ton of jumpshots— 67.2.% of his shots in the Warriors series came inside of 10 feet. He struggles to finish because his touch is not elite and he doesn’t create advantages. The only time he truly warrants a double team or extra help is when a much smaller player is switched onto him. Even then, he doesn’t always brush those flies off, and he can be prone to committing charging fouls if he ramps up his aggression when trying to attack the basket.
The big fella’s lack of advantage creation becomes concerning when considering how much offensive responsibility he currently carries for Houston. You can’t give him the ball and tell him to get a bucket at any time. Additionally, despite the fact that he’s a good passer, he can’t be a primary playmaker because he doesn’t break down defenses. Teams are unafraid to let him go one-on-one for an entire game. That’s why Houston still needs to find their true franchise player.
None of this is meant to take away from what Sengun has accomplished. The 22-year-old is an All-Star who just led a team to the number two seed in a stacked Western Conference. He’s a really good player who is only going to get better. However, his playstyle won’t ever make him a viable number one option on a contending team, and that’s okay. With his ability to screen, roll, be a connective passer, and score inside, he would be a fantastic complementary star next to a true top dog who plays on the perimeter. The Rockets need to find a guard or wing who can carry their offense and lead them in big games. If Houston wants to improve next year, they should be calling about Devin Booker, Trae Young, and LaMelo Ball this summer. A core of (insert star here), Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson would make them one of the scariest teams in the league. Then, they would need to prioritize adding some more shooters around those guys in order to provide enough spacing for them to operate. Sengun could look better in iso if he didn’t have to operate in a cramped paint.
Overall, despite their current flaws, the contending potential is there for Houston. They’re young, they have a winning culture, and they have a ton of assets. A couple big moves this summer would set them up for serious success.
The Bench Mob Blog 