Tyler Smith, the 33rd pick in the 2024 NBA draft, was waived from his two-way contract with the Houston Rockets yesterday. This is the second time Smith has been cut this season; the Bucks, the team who drafted him, let him go in the process of trimming their roster after training camp. The young forward didn’t see the court for the Rockets at all during his month with the team, and in his rookie year with Milwaukee, he averaged just 5.3 minutes and 2.9 points across 23 appearances.
It hasn’t even been two years since he got drafted, but Smith’s career is already hanging on by a thread. Coming out of the G League Ignite, the 21-year-old was a promising prospect, ranked 14th on Bench Mob Blog’s big board. Now, after being cut twice with very little concrete production under his belt, it feels like his journey could be over before it truly begins.
But it’s not time to give up yet.
With raw, young prospects like Smith, it’s important to remember that their development is a slow grind. Outliers like Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama and, heck, even Cason Wallace who come into the league as awesome players from day one have spoiled fans, distracting them from the fact that most young guys take time to adjust and grow before they become real contributors. Smith joined the NBA as a 19-year-old kid. He was never going to be a polished product this early, especially not to the degree playoff teams like Milwaukee and Houston are looking for. In order to properly evaluate Smith at this stage, you can’t consider what he is right now, but rather what he can become.
The potential with Smith is still very intriguing. He has a legitimate NBA skill, his shooting, which can’t be said about many of his unmolded peers. The 6’9” four man already hits stationary triples at a reliable rate, his form is quick, clean and repeatable, and he’s flashed the ability to come off down screens or relocations and get his puppies organized. Being a shooter with size will be enough to keep him on radars while he continues to iron out the rest of his game.
The two prominent things Smith needs to work on are his interior scoring and defensive impact. Because he’s a shooter, he’s going to attract tight closeouts, and he’ll need to at least be able to get by defenders and score on straight-line drives. Having some roll-man chops would help too since he’s a bigger guy. These are things he put on display somewhat often with the Ignite, but during his limited NBA playing time, he’s fallen mainly into a spot-up shooter role. More freedom and instilled confidence could help him reawaken his overall quality play finishing.
As for the defense, he’s not going to be a primary rim protector as a small-ball five, so he’ll need to lean more into being a weakside helper and a hedge guy against ball screens. He’s an average athlete for his position, so really working to understand positioning will be crucial. He’s an active communicator, and we’ve seen bits and pieces of sharp rotations and vertical contests from him, it’s just about putting it together with more consistency.
If you’re the player comp type, you could think of Tyler Smith as something of a baby Jabari Smith Jr. Houston’s former top-three pick is a perimeter-focused defender who is a jack of all trades, master of none on that end, and offensively he’s a movement shooter with a shallow off-the-dribble bag. Jabari is a true power forward, something Tyler should aspire to be given his current positional tweener status.
It’s true Tyler Smith is a ways away from being a real NBA player, let alone one of Jabari Smith’s caliber, but again, it’s all about the potential. This is a guy who is just barely 21 years old, has the framing of a defined role in place and still has so much room to get better. The G League Ignite did a poor job preparing its players for the next level, and the Bucks and Rockets were never going to prioritize Smith’s development to any degree. A new team, preferably a rebuilding one, could pull serious value from the former second-round pick if they invest effort into him and are patient with his progress. The theoretical nature of his game of course means there’s a possibility he doesn’t pan out, but he has enough upside to make him worthy of a serious look. That’s why his career shouldn’t be stamped as over just yet.
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