The Oklahoma City Thunder have the brightest future in the NBA, and it’s not just because they’re the reigning champs with a 27-year-old MVP and a 24-year-old All-NBA player. It’s not only because of their stockpile of picks, either. People are sleeping on the fact that Cason Wallace, who is their fourth-most important prospect at best (depending on who you ask), is going to be a starter in this league for the next decade.
After making an All-Rookie team in 2023-24, Wallace enjoyed a very successful sophomore campaign last season. The former 10th overall pick started 43 games in the regular season for the eventual champs, averaging 8.4 points and 1.8 steals while seriously contending for an All-Defensive nomination. In the playoffs, even when his shot wasn’t falling, he was an integral part of OKC’s title push, playing 22.4 minutes a night. Now, heading into year three, Wallace is primed to improve and become even more impactful. Here’s a breakdown of his game on both ends and what it will take for him to break out in 2024-25.
Offense
On this loaded Thunder squad, Wallace is almost exclusively tasked with a supporting role. He’s assigned a lot of hands-off work, with most of his shot attempts being of the open, assisted, off-ball variety. Over 98% of his threes came by way of helpers last season, and he operated on an 100th percentile 3PT shot quality diet (per BBall Index), meaning he had plenty of time and space to set his feet and line up the laces. He shot just 35.6% from deep overall in 2024-25, which isn’t an ideal output given his typical shot demographic, but he’s a better shooter than the numbers suggest. Real hoopers know that sometimes the in-rhythm, slightly contested looks are easier to hit than the wide open ones. More space means more time to overthink. Wallace is generally competent from beyond the arc. He’s unafraid to keep letting it fly and will take and make some more difficult movement shots. He’s left open so often not because he’s a poor shooter, but because his teammates (mainly Shai and JDub) attract so much help. It’s true that Wallace needs to find some more consistency in his release and increase his efficiency at least a little bit, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so.
Even when his shot isn’t on point, Wallace is able to impact the game offensively as a glue guy. He’s a super sharp ball mover who keeps turnovers at a minimum. In 2024-25, he ranked in the 87th percentile in passing efficiency according to BBall Index. The young guard excels as a stationary passer, dishing out timely extras and making plays from the middle of the floor on the short roll or against a zone. He even has some juice as a pick-and-roll ball handler, something we’ll get to later. One skill Wallace needs to work on is his decision-making speed. He placed in just the 50th percentile in quick decision percentage last season (the % of a player’s possessions that lasted under 4 seconds), showing how sometimes he’s either too hesitant to shoot or not quite hasty enough to swing the rock. His passes occasionally lack oomph, something that causes a decent amount of his turnovers. Wallace is a solid shooter and he reads the court well, he just needs to find more comfort in his ability to do those things.
Wallace does a lot of other small things that keep OKC’s offense chugging along. He has a keen sense for cutting/relocating off the ball. He rebounds pretty well offensively for a guard. He’s also a surprisingly good screener and can be used in pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll scenarios. Most impressively, though, he’s a true force in transition. The Kentucky product’s end-to-end speed in the open floor can be blinding, and he’s very assertive in pushing the pace and attacking the rack in fast break/semi-transition scenarios. He’ll bullishly bludgeon the rim with some unexpected high-flying jams or finish tough layups through contact, even with his off hand. This is definitely the play type in which Wallace is the most confident at this point. His halfcourt slashing is more of a mixed bag, with his touch being spotty at times. He prefers to get to his left hand when going downhill, an interesting quirk for a righty player.
As a whole, Wallace is a very capable role player on offense already, but he has a lot of untapped potential left to dive into.
Defense
As mentioned in the intro, Wallace contended for an All-Defensive spot last season, and he may have just flat-out deserved to make it. The Thunder built their championship foundation on their disruptive perimeter coverage, and Wallace was an integral cog of their scheme. His instincts at the point of attack are among the best in basketball. The Texas native has lightning quick hands and gets a finger on virtually every ball that comes his way. He grabbed 2.3 steals per 75 possessions in 2024-25 (95th percentile) and racked up 4.7 deflections (95th percentile). Wallace’s pickpocket ability is out of this world— no ball handler is safe in his vicinity.
On the ball, Wallace is pretty steady and can keep his matchup in front of him reliably. He dances through screens with ease, and finished in the 93rd percentile of BBall Index’s screen navigation metric last season. He’s also eager to take on star opponents— his matchup difficulty graded out in the 90th percentile. The 6’4” guard’s lateral mobility isn’t elite, and he sometimes struggles to contain super speedy guys (T.J. McConnell in the Finals, for example), but he makes up for that with strength and can cover bigger forwards on switches with little trouble. Plus, he has excellent recovery skills and lodges out steals from behind when he does get beat. All in all, Wallace is one of the premier perimeter defensive aces in the league.
Between his courageous clamping chops and complementary offensive game, Cason Wallace has the skillset to be a coveted role player in the NBA for a long time. However, he still has plenty of room to grow, and the path for him to break out needs to start with an increase in usage. Remember how transition is where Wallace is the most confident? That’s because he has freedom when he’s running the break. On most of OKC’s possessions, he’s confined to standing in the corner, waiting for the rock to come his way so he can put up a spot-up triple. That’s all the team really needs from him, given what Shai and JDub can do on offense, but he could blossom into more of a secondary creator, or even a true point guard, if provided the chance to spread his wings. Wallace has shown the ability to operate as a pick-and-roll handler both in college and in the league. He has a knack for jailing his defender on his back hip and creating lanes to score in the in-between, and can also make smart reads as a live-ball passer. Tapping further into this aspect of his game would put Wallace into the Andrew Nembard-type tier of guard.
There is no guarantee the Thunder will give Wallace the opportunity to expand as an on-ball creator in the upcoming season. They’re more focused on winning now than player development. That said, the added experience that comes with another year in the NBA and from competing deep in the playoffs alone will help the 21-year-old hone his skills within his current role. That’s why no matter what way you spin it, Cason Wallace is in for a breakout year in 2025-26.
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