NBA teams are drafting centers too low. There are always a couple prominent big men picked early, but in the last five years we’ve seen dozens of non-lottery centers outperforming their expectations and rewarding teams with valuable contributions in their rookie seasons and beyond. Let’s look at the facts about non-lottery centers drafted in the 2020s that prove centers need to be higher on draft boards.
The Sample
In the last five drafts (2020-2024), 42 centers were selected outside of the lottery. Five of them were draft-and-stash picks who haven’t yet joined an NBA roster. One of them, 2024 draftee DaRon Holmes, missed his entire rookie year with injury. That leaves 36 non-lottery centers drafted in the last five years who have played in the league. Thirteen were non-lottery first round picks and 23 were second rounders.
Centers Contribute as Rookies
More often than not, rookie centers that have entered the league in the last five years have been trusted to at least soak up some regular season minutes—and several have made an even bigger immediate impact.
- Half (18/36) of the non-lottery centers drafted in the last five years played in 40 or more games as rookies
- Nine played in 60+ games
- 28 of them played in at least 20 games
- Twenty-two centers from that 36-player sample logged 10+ minutes per game as rookies, and seven played 20+ MPG
The eight centers drafted outside the lottery in the 2024 draft class turned out to be especially deep.
- Six of the eight played over 15 minutes per game this past season (DaRon Holmes played zero minutes as he missed the entire season with injury)
- Two of them, Kel’el Ware (15th overall pick) and Yves Missi (21st), were full-time starters by the end of the season
- Quinten Post (52nd) became a regular member of Golden State’s regular season and playoff rotations
- Ariel Hukporti (58th), the only healthy one of the bunch to not reach 15+ MPG, played 8.7 minutes per game for the Knicks and started one contest. He earned a standard contract in the middle of the season before a torn Achilles ended his season prematurely
Several other non-lottery centers outside of the ‘24 class played big roles as rookies in the last five years. Walker Kessler (22nd overall pick in 2022) played 74 games (40 starts) as a rookie and ended up placing third in Rookie of the Year. Jaylin Williams (34th, 2022) played 18.7 minutes per game in 49 appearances (36 starts). He was a starter in OKC’s two play-in games in his first year. Trayce Jackson-Davis (57th, 2023) was a key member of Golden State’s rotation, averaging 16.6 minutes in 68 appearances. Isaiah Jackson and Day’Ron Sharpe (22nd & 29th, 2021) only logged 36 and 32 games respectively, but both played major rotation roles when their teams faced injuries. Jackson started 15 of his 36 games played.
Fourteen non-lottery rookie centers in the last five years did average fewer than 10 minutes per game: Ariel Hukporti (2024 draft), Moussa Diabate (2022), Kai Jones (2021), Neemias Queta (2021), Filip Petrusev (2021), Charles Bassey (2021), Sandro Mamukelashvili (2021), Zeke Nnaji (2020), Udoka Azubuike (2020), Vernon Carey Jr. (2020), Daniel Oturu (2020), Nick Richards (2020), Marko Simonovic (2020), and Paul Reed (2020). However, nine of them are still in the NBA. Even when they don’t make a splash as rookies, their play and presence are keeping them around and providing the teams that drafted them a ton of value.
Centers Have Staying Power
Non-lottery centers drafted in the past five years are sticking around in the league for several seasons, and they aren’t just hanging around on the margins—they’re advancing into bigger roles over time. The high likelihood that centers play several years after being drafted gives us an idea of why they so often outperform their draft slots.
- Twenty-nine of the 36 centers drafted outside of the lottery in the last five years are still in the NBA (30 if you count DaRon Holmes)
- Five 2020 draftees, including Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa, and Nick Richards, have already built five year careers and are set to stick around for longer. Younger guys, like members of the 2024 draft class, are primed to reach that milestone too based on how they’ve performed early in their careers
- Alperen Sengun, the 16th pick in 2021, has blossomed into an All-Star
- Five other centers from our sample are currently starters (Nick Richards, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Kel’el Ware, and Yves Missi)
- Only one non-lottery center who was drafted in the last five years and is still in the league is a fringe player (Christian Koloko, who is on a two-way contract). The rest have fit snugly into a bench role of some capacity
- Neemias Queta, Paul Reed, Luka Garza, and other reserve centers may not stand out as big impact players, but they’ve all contributed enough to hang around for several years and counting
Centers Outperform Their Draft Position
Keeping a roster spot and playing minutes are two things that show a player is valued, but they don’t exactly paint a guy’s on-court impact. Win shares, sourced from Basketball Reference, show how centers frequently outperform their draft positions with their on-court contributions. This fact directly implies that centers are being drafted too low relative to their return value.
- Twenty-three of the 29 sample centers who are still in the NBA are top 30 in their respective draft classes in win shares. Eight are in the top ten
- Only one is 40th or lower (Ariel Hukporti is 40th in the 2024 class)
- Alperen Sengun was drafted 16th overall and is second in the ‘21 class in win shares. Kel’el Ware was the 15th overall pick and is second in win shares in the ‘24 class
Here are all the players from our sample who have outperformed their original draft position based on win shares:
| Player | Draft position (year) | Win share rank | The Diff |
| Alperen Sengun | 16 (2021) | 2 | +14 |
| Kel’el Ware | 15 (2024) | 2 | +13 |
| Walker Kessler | 22 (2022) | 3 | +19 |
| Yves Missi | 21 (2024) | 4 | +17 |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 57 (2023) | 5 | +52 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 32 (2024) | 8 | +24 |
| Mark Williams | 15 (2022) | 9 | +6 |
| Adem Bona | 41 (2024) | 9 | +32 |
| Isaiah Stewart | 16 (2020) | 11 | +5 |
| Jaylin Williams | 34 (2022) | 12 | +22 |
| Quinten Post | 52 (2024) | 14 | +38 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 40 (2024) | 15 | +25 |
| Day’Ron Sharpe | 29 (2021) | 17 | +12 |
| Nick Richards | 42 (2020) | 17 | +25 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 22 (2021) | 19 | +3 |
| Jericho Sims | 58 (2021) | 21 | +37 |
| Paul Reed | 58 (2020) | 22 | +36 |
| Moussa Diabate | 43 (2022) | 24 | +19 |
| Christian Koloko | 33 (2022) | 26 | +7 |
| Neemias Queta | 39 (2021) | 26 | +13 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 54 (2021) | 27 | +27 |
| Charles Bassey | 53 (2021) | 30 | +23 |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 42 (2023) | 31 | +11 |
| Luka Garza | 52 (2021) | 31 | +21 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 52 (2022) | 35 | +17 |
| Ariel Hukporti | 58 (2024) | 40 | +18 |
Centers > Guards
While the facts we’ve discussed are impressive at face value, they can’t truly be used to prove that centers are undervalued unless they’re compared to those of a different position. All of the data for this study was also collected for guards, and there are some key differences between the two positions that show centers tend to be more valuable.
Non-lottery centers have had more staying power than non-lottery guards in recent years.
- Sixty-five guards drafted outside of the lottery in the past five drafts have appeared in at least one NBA game
- Forty-seven of them, or 72.3%, are still in the league today, meaning 27.7% (18) are no longer on a roster
- Meanwhile, 80.5% (29) of our sample centers are still in the league and 19.4% (7) are not
- On top of that, 14.2% (1/7) of sample centers no longer in the NBA played only one season, but 44.4% (8/18) of sample guards fit the same criteria
According to win shares, non-lottery centers are much more likely than non-lottery guards to outperform their draft slots. In fact, many more guards have actually underperformed their draft slot.
- Of the 47 sample guards still in the league, 48.9% (23) of them are top thirty in their respective draft classes in win shares. Ten point six percent (5) are in the top ten
- Meanwhile, 79.3% (23) of sample centers still in the league are top thirty in their classes in win shares, and 27.6% (8) are in the top ten
- Only one (3.4%) sample center still in the league is currently outside of the top 40, but 16 (34.0%) sample guards fall in that range
Here are all the sample guards who have not only fallen short of their draft slot according to win shares but also rank outside of the top thirty in their classes:
| Guard | Draft position (year) | Win share rank | The Diff |
| Nick Smith Jr. | 27 (2023) | 55 | -28 |
| Keon Johnson | 21 (2021) | 55 | -34 |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino | 17 (2023) | 54 | -37 |
| Isaiah Collier | 29 (2024) | 52 | -23 |
| Blake Wesley | 25 (2022) | 52 | -27 |
| KJ Simpson | 42 (2024) | 51 | -9 |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | 29 (2022) | 51 | -22 |
| AJ Johnson | 23 (2024) | 50 | -27 |
| Malaki Branham | 20 (2022) | 49 | -29 |
| Kobe Bufkin | 15 (2023) | 47 | -32 |
| Josh Christopher | 24 (2021) | 43 | -19 |
| Jaden Springer | 28 (2021) | 40 | -12 |
| Jaden Hardy | 37 (2022) | 39 | -2 |
| Tre Mann | 18 (2021) | 38 | -20 |
| Keyonte George | 16 (2023) | 34 | -18 |
For reference, only one sample center fits that criteria— Kai Jones. Yes, some of the guards on the table are probably better than their win share ranking suggests (George, Mann, Collier), but still, the evidence makes it overwhelmingly clear that non-lottery centers simply produce more value than non-lottery guards.
Conclusion
Here’s a recap of the main information we’ve covered:
- Non-lottery centers play roles as rookies at a high rate
- Non-lottery centers have strong staying power and are more likely to stick in the league than guards
- Non-lottery centers who won’t stick can be identified early if they aren’t playing real minutes as rookies
- Non-lottery centers often outperform their original draft positions and are very likely to at least return first round value, according to win shares
- Non-lottery guards are much more likely than centers to fall below their original draft positions and outside of the top thirty in their classes, according to win shares
The bottom line is that non-lottery centers tend to provide more value than what’s expected of them. The facts prove that centers are being undervalued on draft night. They’re being drafted way too low. Teams searching for value outside of the lottery should be giving big men more attention, because odds are they will benefit greatly from doing so.
Appendix: Undrafted Centers
While the findings in this article apply most strongly to drafted centers, the undrafted market has produced some notable overperformers as well. For example, Dominick Barlow, who went undrafted in 2022, would rank 26th in his class in win shares had he been drafted. Oscar Tshiebwe (2023) and Trey Jemison (2023) would also rank 26th in their class. Branden Carlson, a 2024-25 rookie, is currently 21st in the 2024 class in win shares. All of those guys are still in the league playing some sort of role, as are Jay Huff, Jock Landale, Duop Reath, Colin Castleton, and others. Even some guys who are no longer on rosters, such as Omer Yurtseven, Orlando Robinson, and Olivier Sarr, were able to hang around for a few seasons despite going undrafted. Robinson would rank 25th in win shares in the 2022 class.
Appendix: 2025 Draft
With all of the information from this article in mind, the 2025 draft should be approached with centers as a higher priority. There are a number of big man prospects in this year’s class who aren’t getting talked about much but have the makings of future overperformers, including Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Dylan Cardwell, Hansen Yang, Vladislav Goldin, and Lachlan Olbrich.
None of those guys are currently projected to go anywhere higher than the second round. However, their archetypes match those of the centers from our sample that proved to be much more valuable than their original draft position. Keep an eye on Niederhauser, Cardwell, Goldin, Yang, and others with draft night on the horizon.
The Bench Mob Blog 
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