The Sacramento Kings are locked, loaded, and ready to compete. With De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and the newly added DeMar DeRozan at the helm, the team has enough star power and offensive firepower to make real noise in the West. As we’ve seen in recent years, though, having a few stars isn’t enough to make a deep playoff run. You need a well-rounded team with a supporting cast who knows how to play their roles. That’s why it’s a good thing the Kings have Keon Ellis.
Ellis, who went undrafted in 2022, played some quality minutes for Sactown last season as a true 3&D guard. Now, he’s poised to break out and make a huge impact in 2025. Let’s break down his game and find out why.
Offense
If you’re gonna be a shooting guard in today’s NBA, you have to be able to shoot, especially off the catch. Keon Ellis checks that box. He shot 42.4% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, and 94.3% of his threes were assisted. His quick, clean trigger allows him to get shots off in a variety of ways. He hits spot-ups and capitalizes off advantages that Fox and Sabonis create. He also hits movement shots coming off handoffs, a key action in Sacramentos’ offense.
Shooting is just the tip of the iceberg for Ellis, though. The fun begins with what he can do off the dribble. While his catch-and-shoot volume significantly outweighed that of his pullups, he connected on 40.8% of his pullup threes last season. He’s comfortable rising up and firing off a couple dribbles from deep and from mid-range. This is a skill he often utilizes coming off ball screens. He’s far from a “give him the ball and let him cook” guy, but he has the foundation of a reliable bucket getter.
Ellis’ off-the-bounce chops become even more intriguing when you consider his passing capabilities. The Alabama product excels at making plays for others when driving, especially out of the pick-and-roll. He always has his head up searching for open teammates and he has a knack for hitting them right on time and right in their shot pockets. He dished out an assist on 18.8% of his drives last season, a rate that places him in the 96th percentile according to BBall Index. Overall, it’s clear that Ellis isn’t just a one-dimensional two guard. He’s a legitimate combo guard who can make things happen with any amount of usage and offensive involvement.
While Ellis’ drive-and-kick game is on point, his scoring at the rim isn’t. The young wing doesn’t have the strength, craft, or confidence to finish inside among the trees. As a result, he drives just 1.8 times per game and is heavily reliant on floaters inside the arc. Improving his interior prowess would allow Ellis to do more damage when attacking closeouts, an increasingly vital skill for shooters as the NBA moves away from pure specialists.
Because he struggles in traffic, Ellis is turnover prone when he gets too deep in the paint. He’ll drive with no plan, get stopped by the defense, panic, and chuck an errant pass to nobody in particular. That’s a habit that he will need to break. He doesn’t turn the ball over much overall, though. He averaged just 0.6 turnovers per game last season while handing out 1.5 helpers.
Defense
Defense is Keon Ellis’ calling card. It’s why he ranked 41st on Bench Mob Blog’s big board back in 2022. It’s why he found himself in the starting lineup in 21 games this past season. He is one of the few standout parts of Sacramento’s otherwise mediocre defense.
The key to his impact on that end is his defensive playmaking. Ellis has every tool needed to wreak havoc, from a 6’9” wingspan, to swift lateral mobility, to keen hands. As a result, he gathered 1.7 steals and 1.2 blocks per 75 possessions in 2023-24, figures that rank in the 92nd and 81st percentiles, respectively. His instincts and sense of timing are sharp and he comes up with a ton of strips, interceptions, and chasedown blocks.
Ellis is no slouch as an on-ball defender, either. The Kings often entrusted him with guarding the best of the best players in the league, as shown by his 98th percentile ranking in BBall Index’s matchup difficulty metric. The youngster rose to the challenge and locked up superstars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Damian Lillard.
2023-24 was essentially Ellis’ first NBA season, as in his real rookie campaign he played just 4.4 minutes a night across 16 games. Naturally, that means he made plenty of rookie mistakes. At this point in time, Ellis is more susceptible to lapses like getting blown by or back cut than an elite perimeter defender should be. Despite those flaws, he still levels out as a positive defender and the runway to greatness in the future is clear.
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So, what will it take for Keon Ellis’ breakout potential to materialize in 2025? The first and most important thing is a bigger role. Sacramento’s starting shooting guard spot is currently up for grabs. Kevin Huerter, the sharpshooter who’s held the spot the last two years, and Malik Monk, reigning sixth man of the year runner-up, both have strong cases to be the opener. However, coach Mike Brown could be better off going with Ellis instead. De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan are all offensively inclined players who need the ball. Guys who can play off the ball on O and guard up on D would be the best supporting cast for that trio. Ellis is a significantly better defender than Huerter and Monk and he isn’t far behind them as a shooter. Therefore, the young guy should be penciled in the starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t get the nod, the Kings believe in Ellis so significant minutes should be in the cards for him either way.
In terms of improving his game, Ellis could really benefit from getting stronger. He weighs a slim 175 pounds right now. Putting on some muscle would make a huge difference in his finishing and on-ball defensive escapades. If he doesn’t get in the weight room, Ellis should be watching tape of guys like Donovan Mitchell to find craftier ways to score in the paint.
If/when both of those things happen, Keon Ellis will be ready to break out and make a big time stamp on a Kings playoff team in 2024-25. Don’t sleep on the kid. He’s coming.
The Bench Mob Blog 