2023-24 Breakout Candidate: Quentin Grimes

The past three seasons have been a roller coaster for the New York Knicks. The excitement after a surprise playoff appearance in 2020-21 faded quickly due to a painfully mediocre 2021-22 regular season. One thing became clear after that year: they needed to embrace the youth movement. Talent and juice were lacking and Ws did not come consistently. Fading veterans like Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose, Kemba Walker, and Taj Gibson were given significant roles while talented young players like Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes were denied the freedom they needed to develop. Things were bleak. 

This past season, Coach Tom Thibodeau made the screamingly obvious change. Older players were traded or benched in favor of the youngsters, and the switch paid off. Quickley and Grimes made leaps and helped boost their squad back into competitiveness. The Knicks finished 5th in the Eastern Conference, advanced to the second round after making quick work of the Cleveland Cavaliers, and fought hard in a combative six-game series versus the eventual Finals runner-ups, the Miami Heat. 

Now, heading into the 2023-24 season and with the Eastern Conference as competitive as ever, New York will need their young core to take another step forward in order to repeat last year’s success. Of that core, nobody is more primed for a breakout than Quentin Grimes.

At just 23 years old, Grimes is already a full-time starter for the Knicks. Only seven other players 23 years old or under were regular starters for playoff teams in 2022-23 (Evan Mobley, RJ Barrett, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Keegan Murray, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Ja Morant), putting the third-year two-guard in outstanding company. His game is more mature than his age, and he’s earned his spot in the opening five by playing his role exquisitely. His textbook 3&D skill set makes him a seamless fit next to New York’s star duo, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. Grimes is a good player now, but he has another level that could be unlocked this year.

Through his first two years in the league, Grimes’ claim to fame has been his three-point shooting. He holds the franchise record for most triples made in a game by a rookie with the seven he splashed versus the Bucks in December 2021. He’s also already 29th on New York’s all-time 3PM list and is on track to crack the top 20 (at least) by the end of next season. He’s an excellent catch-and-shoot threat and a knockdown corner shooter (47.4% on corner treys in 2022-23) who punishes defenses that send too much help at Brunson or Randle. 

His catch-and-shoot game is pure, but what makes Grimes as good of a sniper as he is is his ability to hit shots in a variety of ways. He can convert off handoffs, pin-down screens, or even just simple relocations, making him an even more effective weapon in New York’s offense. He’s mastered the ability to get his feet set and shoulders squared while on the move, and that skill combined with his quick release and elevation make him lethal when coming off a screen. 

Beyond shooting, Grimes excels at other little things that make him the ideal off-ball offensive player. He’s a savvy cutter with a knack for catching defenders ball-watching and darting to the rim. He posted 1.4 points per possession on cuts last season (via Synergy), an elite output (1.0 is considered great). 

Additionally, Grimes is a closeout killer. When defenders are slow and off-balance on their contests, or when they close out tightly to prevent an inevitable long-range bucket, he blows right by them and takes it to the rack. When he gets there, he’s a fantastic finisher. He graded out in the 100th percentile of BBall Index’s rim shot making metric last season. He can lay it up with finesse or power.

With his perimeter and interior scoring prowess, and the advantages he creates by attacking closeouts, Grimes bends defenses much more than the average role player and has shown real capacity for capitalizing on that gravity. He is a much better passer and playmaker than the box score numbers suggest (2.1 assists per game in 2022-23). He generates a ton of high value shots for teammates (layups and threes) by driving and finding bigs waiting in the dunker’s spot or shooters spotting up outside. He graded out in the 96th percentile of Basketball Index’s Passing Creation Quality metric last season. 

Being able to put the ball on the deck and make something happen is a crucial skill in a playoff setting. Specialists are struggling to find minutes in the postseason in recent years. Teams are running shooters off the line and forcing them to make decisions. Shooters have to be able to make defenses pay in that situation or they can’t stay on the floor. Duncan Robinson, the Miami Heat’s all-time 3PM leader, fell out of the rotation in the regular season but was able to climb back in and contribute to his team’s Finals run with a newfound capability to attack closeouts. Grimes already has this in his bag and will never be exploited in that way.

Grimes’ value as a complementary player doesn’t end on offense. On the other end, he’s a tremendous point-of-attack defender who makes life difficult for some of basketball’s best players. The advanced stats sing his praises and the tape tells the same story. 

The premier facet of Grimes’ guarding ability is his pick-and-roll defense. He shrugs off screens like they’re nothing and stays glued to his man like a shy child to his mother. Even if he does get caught up on the pick, he recovers quickly and alters shots with rearview contests. And, in the rare case where he gets stuck behind completely, he works to funnel his man into the waiting arms of menacing shot-blocker Mitchell Robinson. The pick-and-roll is both one of the sport’s most common and effective actions, so being able to weaken it at the level Grimes does is an extremely valuable talent. 

Quentin Grimes is unquestionably a rock-solid pro already in his young career. However, the avenue for growth for him is clear-cut and realistic and 2023-24 could be a huge campaign for him. One thing that would help Grimes achieve a breakout is higher volume. The man needs more shots! That seems like a “well duh, you could say that about anybody” claim, but the numbers prove he is more effective when featured more in the offense. 

In 2022-23, Grimes attempted 8.5 shots per game (5.7 3PA). He averaged 11.3 points on 46.8% from the field and 38.6% from three. In 25 games where he attempted 10+ field goals, he averaged 17.9 points on 49.5% from the field and 41.7% from three. When he’s given a chance to shine, Grimes takes full advantage of the opportunity.

Getting Grimes more shots wouldn’t even require force-feeding him and taking the ball out of the hands of New York’s stars. Putting him in more off-ball actions and helping him get a few more good looks per game is all it would take to maximize the damage he can do (and make the team better in the process!). 

In terms of actually developing his game, the next step for Grimes is to become a more capable on-ball creator. He’s such a dangerous off-ball threat that he rarely puts the ball on the deck and creates in 1v1 situations, or out of the pick-and-roll. 99.4% of his three-point makes and 77.6% of his two-point makes last year were assisted, according to Basketball Reference. He’s shown small flashes of off-the-bounce shot making and P&R playmaking, and making those a more prominent part of his playstyle would take him to another level as an individual player. Even just utilizing one (or two) dribble pull-ups more often would give defenders another thing to worry about when guarding him and increase his impact. 

NBA University, a well-known account on X that promotes in-depth basketball content to general audiences, recently posted the prompt, “name a young guy or role player who is under-appreciated nationally”. Grimes fits both categories. His standout role player qualities have made him a key contributor to the Knicks through his first two professional campaigns and he doesn’t get talked about enough. Additionally, he has a higher ceiling to scratch than most realize, and this upcoming season could see him kicking his game into another gear. Watch out for a breakout year from Quentin Grimes in 2023-24.